Thursday, October 13, 2011

THE DILEMMA IN NIGERIA'S OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

Life on earth as we know is often paradoxical, exemplified in the aphorism the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. This can be confirmed in virtually all aspect of lives, individually and collectively. And it explains why a prominent OPEC member, who in the world is within the first digit in bracket of world largest oil producers, cannot manage her oil and gas resources. We have not been able to accumulate either the capital or entrepreneurial resources since oil exploration started over 50 years ago.
Let me share with you part of my draft work;
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC)
NNPC, on behalf of Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN), is the owner of the entire oil acreages in Nigeria, the holding company of all oil and gas activities in Nigeria, operator, the policy maker, supervisor and regulator of oil and gas business in Nigeria. NNPC will be discussed throughout this book as comprising
(a) FGN
(b) Ministry of Petroleum Resources
(c) 11(or 10) subsidiaries of NNPC, and
(d) Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR)
NNPC has not been able to, on its own, explore, develop and produce oil and/or gas since 1956, when we were told oil business commercially started in Nigeria, beyond the 70,000/125,000 barrels per day (bpd) largely due from already producing oil blocks, transferred to Nigeria Petroleum Development Company (NPDC) by NNPC, which are largely operated by other oil companies (mainly I0Cs). Neither has NNPC been able to refine the crude oil produced for Nigeria by the I0Cs, despite Nigeria’s status in OPEC (Oil Producing and Exporting Countries) and the ostensibly single-digit-highest world oil producer. NNPC is also at an unbearable pain to even distribute throughout Nigeria the refined petroleum products we wastefully import.
The above accolades make Nigeria morally and experientially incapacitated to develop, adopt, adapt and implement healthy and sustainable benchmarks in oil and gas business. And that is why we hear from otherwise well-informed public officials allege that the IOCs are “cheating� Nigeria. NNPC neither drives (set up and implement inspiring agenda) nor really monitors the sector. This trend informed the private initiative engagement under the platform of Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI), called Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI).
NNPC does not only falter in the upstream, but also in the downstream sector. The first refinery in Africa was built in 1954 in an OPEC member country, Algeria, and non-OPEC member country, – South Africa (Durban). Incidentally, other non-OPEC African countries that had refineries before Nigeria include Luanda (1958), Kenya, Ghana and Senegal (1963). It is also interesting to note that later in the 1960s Nigeria had to share having refineries in her shore with Cote d’ Ivoire, Gabon and Tanzania as well as Congo and Cameroon. In capacity, the Nigeria’s Port Harcourt refinery of 210mbpd (million barrel per day), ranks with Ras Lanuf’s Libya refinery of 220mbpd and Algeria’s skikda refinery of 300mbpd in Africa.
Out of the nine refineries in Egypt, in which eight are operated by Egyptian General Petroleum Corp (EGPC) only two are not at top performance in the early 21st Century, Libya and Algeria have all their refineries in top performance range. Unfortunately, the three, nay, four NNPC refineries with a total name-plate installed (between 1965 and 1979, when they were all installed) capacity of 445mbpd are below 50% when they are not shutdown totally as has been the case since March 2011 till now (May 2011). In this state together with other paradoxical anomalies we shall explore, the faint attempt by NNPC to sell about 51% out of its 100% ownership in these refineries and to encourage private investors (who have been licensed) to build refineries, may become another Ajaokuta Steel Project, nay, NITEL, no I mean Nigeria National Shipping Line. Neither does the petroleum Minister’s (Mrs. Diezani Allison-Madueke, now erstwhile minister) 11th hour (20th May 2011) assertion to the effect that NNPC will go commercial next week (pay dividend to shareholders, etc) anything to go-by. Commercialization of government parastatal as big as NNPC is not press briefing activity, it is a thoroughly thought out plan, engagements and execution. South Africa is an example as to how government owned giant electricity organization – ESKOM was commercialized.
Paradoxically we have Nigerians (Private investors, friends of NNPC) heavily involved in oil refineries in other African Countries, but not in Nigeria. How then does NNPC expect Shell, Exxon-Mobil, Total, Chevron, and Agip to build / invest in refineries in Nigeria? Is it through force or blackmail?
Nigeria hence rely heavily on importation of refined petroleum products, depends on PPPRA (Petroleum Products Price Regulatory Agency /Authority) to determine appropriate pricing and hope on fight/ blackmail between labour unions and politicians to sort out the oil and gas subsidy politics.
Nigeria (Local) content Act is a good pointer to our stumbling blocks, both as a country and as individuals. The lack of institutional transparency in the country as a whole and in oil and gas sector particularly has given way to personal greed clothed in a debilitating or hemorrhaging ethnic nationality and religious manipulation and scheming in NNPC. The top decision makers in NNPC is controlled and channeled to the sustenance of the political structure that has kept Nigeria polity Kidnapped, and Nigeria pays daily ransom in order to remain “governable�.
Oil bunkering, oil block licensing and the spending of the petro-dollar rents all flow through the same channel to keep Nigeria kidnapped. Senior and Middle management of NNPC are controlled (empires) by different ethnic nationalities that also use these differences to hide their driving personal greed. This scenario of course ensured that both cabotage and Nigeria Local Content Acts died on arrival.
To enhance the understanding of Nigeria’s oil and gas operational environment, we shall name most of the NNPC subsidiaries (departments) as they exist prior to the major repackaging of NNPC through the stale Petroleum Industry Bill, which Northern National legislator has fiercely fought to stalemate.

They are as follows:
1. Hyson Nigeria Limited and Calson Bermuda Limited.
- Established in August 1988
- As a JV between NNPC and VITOL Energy (Bermuda) Ltd (VEBL)
- NNPC had 51% in Hyson and Chevron 49%
- NNPC had 60% in Calson and Chevron 40%
- In January 1994, Chevron divested and handed her interests to VEBL.
- Calson Ltd is the marketer of Nigeria’s Petroleum Products and Crude oil.
- Hyson is a service (Logistics) provider to Calson.
2. Integrated Data Services Limited (IDSL)
- Established in 1988
- Took over from National Hydro Carbon Reserve Evaluation Centre (HCREC), Seismic Data Processing
Outfit (DPO) and 2 – D Seismic Acquisition Crews or Seismic Party Y.
- IDSL is an upstream oil service provider
- IDSL offers geophysical and petroleum engineering services.
It is expected therefore that IDSL will be in the pack of Schlumberger and Haliburton.
3. Kaduna Refinery and Petrochemical Company (KRPC)
- Commissioned in 1980
- Debottle – necking of the fuel section in December 1985
- Receives local crude Forcados and Escravos Terminals through the Chanomi Creek Pipelines. However, the imported “Sour� crude from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela go through Escravos terminal to Warri crude oil facility and finally to KRPC.
- In March 1988, Linear Alky Benzene (LAB) Petrochemical Plant was operationally added to Kaduna Refinery was incorporated as a limited liability with the name Kaduna Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited.
4. National Engineering and Technical Company Limited (NETCO)
- Establish in 1989 as a JV company between NNPC and Bechel Incorporated
- NETCO was set up to acquire engineering technology through involvement in all aspect of engineering in the oil and gas industry such as:
· Basic / Detailed Engineering
· Procurement
· Project Management
· Environmental Consulting and Training
Why not construction works itself instead of construction supervision? Why not production instead of just procurement?
- Bechel Incorporation withdrew from the JV in 1996
5. Nigeria Gas Company Limited (NGC)
- Established in 1988
- Its objectives since 1988 include:
· Develop efficient gas industry to meet Nigeria’s energy and feedstock needs
· Develop integrated gas pipeline network
· Export natural gas and its derivatives
· Efficiently gather and treat natural gas.
This role has been removed from NGC, so that it can concentrate on Transmission, Distribution and Marketing of natural gas.
Some of the existing pipelines operated by NGC are:
i. Ajaokuta – Geregu pipeline system (supplies gas to the Geregu PHCN power plant).
ii. Ajaokuta – Obajana Gas pipeline system (supplies gas to Obajana Cement Plc).
iii. Aladja Gas pipeline system (supplies gas to Delta Steel Company).
iv. Alakiri – Onne Gas pipeline system (supplies gas to the NAFCON, now Notore chemical).
v. Alakiri – Obigbo North – Ikot Abasi system (supplies gas to ALSCON, Rural Industries).
vi. Escravos – Lagos pipeline (ELP) (supplies gas to egbin power plant, ikorodu, Lagos).
vii. Ibafo – Ikeja Gas supply pipeline (supplies gas to Ikeja City Gate from where Gaslink ltd distributes to Lagos Industrial Area (LIA)).
viii. Ikeja – Ilupeju – Apapa Gas pipeline (supplies gas to Greater Lagos Industrial Area (GLIA)).
ix. Imo River – Aba pipeline (supplies International glass Industry Ltd, PZ plc, Aba Textile mills and Aba Equitable Industry).
x. Oben – Ajaokuta – Geregu pipeline (supplies gas to Ajaokuta Steel Company, Obajana Cement PLC and Geregu PHCN power Plant).
xi. Obigbo North – Afam pipeline (supplies gas to Afam power plant).
xii. Sapele gas supply system (supplies the Ogorode power plant).
Most of the 10Cs have independent pipelines, which are often more efficient, effective and economical, but often a closed system.
6. National Petroleum Investment Management Services (NAPIMS)
- NAPIMS was established to enforce cost control and supervision of JV and RSC of NNPC in oil and gas
Sector in Nigeria.
- Few of the objectives of NAPIMS are:
· Eliminate gas flaring by 2008 /2010
· Attain and sustain oil production level of 4.5mbd by 2010
· Attain and maintain 40 billion barrel reserve from gas as from oil by 2010
· Achieve 70% in local content in oil and gas by 2010 and many more.
The only dominant thread althrough the NAPIMS objectives is that none has been achieved.
7. Nigeria Petroleum Development Company (NPDC)
- NPDC is headquartered in Benin, Edo State.
- Established in 1988 for petroleum exploration and production. Its operations therefore span all
Upstream oil and gas business from exploration to abandonment.
- The following concessions have been assigned to NPDC by NNPC:
· OML 64} Swamp acreage under development in partnership with SINOPEC
OML 66}
· OPL 244 Deepwater block. Nigeria Agip Exploration Ltd (NAE) has signed PSC with NNPC
NPDC has only 10% interest.
· OML 119 Okono / Okpoho, offshore field in partnership with Agip Energy and Natural
Resources (AENR) since 2001.
· OML65 Abura field (Onshore).
The total crude output in January 2009 stood at 74,655bpd, mainly from OML 119 (Okono/Okpoho), which accounted for 63,688 bpd. Hence, NNPC /NPDC Exploration and Production (EP) activities are actually carried out mainly by Agip and marginally by other 10Cs, such as SPDC in Egbema.
Just look at NPDC’s deepwater concessions;
Concession
NPDC interest %
Operating Partners
OPL 214
15
Exxon Mobil
OPL 223
10
Elf
OPL 242
25
Devon Energy
OPL 244
10
Agip
OPL 251
15
Ashbert / NPDC
OPL 256
5
Devon Energy
OPL 318
20
ConocoPhillips
OPL 325
20
Ashbert INPDC
OPL 332
10
BG Nigeria
8. Pipelines And Products Marketing Company Ltd (PPMC)
NNPC sends crude oil through PPMC to the local refineries. PPMC fulfils its functions through a network of petroleum products pipelines, storage depots and jetties.
When local refineries refine crude oil, they supply it to PPMC through refinery depots. However, if the refined products are imported they will go through the jetties. Either from the refinery depots or export / import jetties, the refined petroleum products are distributed by PPMC through its network of pipelines to its depots located all over the country. It is from these depots that petroleum tankers (and hopefully, railway trains) lift the products to retail outlets filling/gasoline stations.
Today most of the refinery depots are kept wet by imported products. Besides poor maintenance and poor location (in the thick forest, far from easy surveillance) of PPMC’s pipelines leading to constant leaking and vandalization, Nigeria’s refineries are permanently on working “Strike�.

Below are PPMC Depots network and Jetties.
Area Office
Depots / Jetties
(i)Port Harcourt
P/H depot, Aba, Enugu, Markurdi and Calabar depots. Bonny Export terminal and Okirika jetty.
(ii) Warri
Warri depot, Warri jetty, Benin depot, Abuohe, Auchi and Lokoja pump station and Escravos Terminal (PPMC).
(iii) Mosimi
Mosimi depot, Atlas cove jetty and depot, satellite (Ejigbo, Lagos) depot, Ibadan, Ore and Ilorin depots.
(iv) Kaduna
Kaduna, Minna, Suleja, Kano and Gusau depots, Abaji, Izom, Sarkin pawa and Zaria pump stations.
(v) Gombe
Jos, Gombe, Yola, biu and Maiduguri depots.
Marine vessels are also used instead of pipelines in the coastal areas of South – South and South – West Nigeria, such as in Port Harcourt, Warri, Lagos and Calabar. In fact, Calabar depot can only be reached through marine vessels. Marine vessels are used in evacuating refined petroleum products from the three refineries in Niger Delta (Port Harcourt and Warri). These coastal vessels supply Atlas cove terminal with products for pumping into the Area depot, Mosimi in Shagamu, Ogun state.
IOC
Local oil company

UPSTREAM
Terminals
NNPC
PPMC Crude passing through each arrows
Refineries /Export MIDSTREAM
PPMC
Export / Import
Area Depots & Jetties
Jetties
Depots DOWNSTREAM
Marketers / Tankers / Marine vessels
Filling / Stations
Motorists / Aircrafts and other Consumers
1. WARRI REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY LTD (WRPC)
Incorporated in November 1988 resulting from the merger of Warri Refinery and Ekpan petrochemical plants. Warri refinery was actually established in 1978, nine years later it was debottlenecked raising its capacity from 100,000bpd to 125,000bpd.
Thus on paper NNPC as defined in this book (FGN, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, DPR and all NNPC subsidiaries) is vastly and adequately equipped to transform Nigeria into a first world country. NNPC is the policy maker in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry; NNPC is the regulator, NNPC is a direct operator through NPDC; indirect operator through being the senior partner in JVs with all the I0Cs operating in Nigeria; NNPC is the principal through her Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) with the I0Cs; NNPC owns, advertises and allocates oil fields; NNPC owns all the refineries in Nigeria as at May 2011; NNPC imports or licenses others to import all refined petroleum products into Nigeria; NNPC exports the crude and refined petroleum products. Yet NNPC is “broke�, she does not have adequate and reliable statistics to show the actual oil and gas production, import and export and revenue thereto in Nigeria.
Between 1985 and 1989, General Ibrahim Babangida unbundled NNPC creating all eleven NNPC subsidiaries specifically in 1988 and 1989. NNPC has eleven/ten subsidiaries, today PHCN also in its unbundling gimmick has eleven distribution companies, coincidence of numbers you may say. After over two decades of NNPC, the entire four refineries have packed up, more PPMC depots are empty, their pipelines, old, ill-repaired, poorly monitored and of course vandalized by greedy ones, not by unemployed. The unemployed only take advantage of already vandalized or leaking pipes. To really vandalize petroleum product pipelines, like oil bunkering is a business beyond the reach of the poor.
On December 19, 2009; Obi O. Akwani quoted the former petroleum minister, Odien Ajumogobia, as admitting “the oil and gas industry is in bad shape and that it suffers from, aging infrastructures and diminished production�.
In Feburary2009, Senator Ahmed Lawan, Chair of the Senate Committee on Public Accounts, decried a reported “discovery� by his committee that the reason Nigerian refineries were not working was because the “NNPC is getting paid for not refining� and the Corporation (NNPC) is collaborating with “others to make sure the refineries are not working�.
Engineer Abubakar Yar’ Adua promised to fix and run the refineries profitably by December 2007, of course, this never happened even though the sale of controlling interest in Nigeria’s Port Harcourt refineries by Obasanjo-led regime was rescinded according to the former NNPC Group Managing Director’s argument to the senate during his screening.
To demonstrate Nigeria’s “incompetence� in oil and gas sector, the FGN at a time looked up to Hungary, Romania and Senegal to either refine oil for Nigeria or have Nigeria commission refineries in their countries to refine oil for Nigeria.
When Obasanjo sold controlling interests in Nigeria’s refineries to Blue Star consortium of Alhaji Aliko Dangote’s Equity Energy Resources, Femi Otedola’s Zenon oil and Transnational Corporation, a deluge of outcry poured out. This transaction was cancelled. One is reminded that since Dangote took over cement (and sugar) cement prices have been on the increase, yet the other side of the coin is that Dangote has high cost of operation ranging from generating his own electricity, water and housing infrastructure, thereby making Dangote’s cost of production quite high. Moreover, Dangote cement/Obajana cement provides more jobs to Nigerians than importation of cheap cement, assuming Nigeria is focused on employment generation. This selling or not selling Nigeria refineries to private investors is not a solution.
Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI)
NEITI is local (national) subset of the global Extractive Industries Transparency International (Initiative) (EITI). This Initiative is meant to engender due process and transparency in payments by Extractive Industry (EI) companies to governments and government-linked entities.
NEITI Act 2007 assented to on May 28, 2007 made Nigeria the first EITI-implementing country to have a national statute backing its existence and operations.
As we review Nigeria’s oil and gas industry from NEITI eyes note the following:
· Information about oil and gas industry is generally not available, particularly to the public
· Incongruence of statistics about the industry across different stakeholders.
· NEITI is an outsider to oil and gas operation in Nigeria.
To complete the introduction to this section, we will quote Business day of 3rd March 2011, as it quotes Reuters under the headline “NNPC� has poorest transparency, says TI, RWI
“The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) had the poorest transparency record of 44 national and international energy companies evaluated in a report published by international watchdogs this week.
“Transparency International (TI) and Revenue Watch Institute (RNI) rated a list of oil and gas companies which represents 60 percent of global output, on how they reported revenues and disclosed information on anti – corruption programmes.
“The report, released on Tuesday and based on research carried out in 2010, showed that publicly listed companies score better than non – listed firms, while international oil companies fare better than national oil companies.
“The NNPC was the only company to score zero on organizational information disclosure which included provision of details of deals agreed with governments and partners on energy projects. The average score was 65 percent.
“NNPC was among eight companies, including Angolan State firm, Sonangol, and Russia’s gas export monopoly – Gazprom, to score zero percent on reporting anti-corruption programmes.
“Officials at NNPC could not be reached for comment
“A separate report last month showed NNPC was using its position as both buyer and agent for the Nigerian government to make profit that should have gone into state coffers.
“By disclosing anti-corruption measures and key organizational and financial data… companies demonstrate their commitments to stopping the misappropriation of revenue�, the TI and RWI report said.
“In particular, detailed publication of fiscal payments allows citizens to hold governments to account�.
“Problems of inefficiency and corruption within NNPC have been acknowledged by the Nigerian government which has ordered a comprehensive audit. Many of the issues are supposed to be addressed by wide-ranging reforms contained within the Petroleum Industry Bill currently before the parliament. “Nigeria, which produces more than 2 million Barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, is ranked by transparency watchdogs as one of the most corrupt countries in the world�.2
Earlier on February 5, 2011 Vanguard newspaper under the headline “Lack of accountability in oil & gas sector, quoted professor Assisi Asobie, the chairman of the National Stakeholders’ Working Group of NEITI, with respect to 2006 - 2008 NEITI report as follows:
“The Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has called for a major technological revamp of the nation’s oil and gas industry in order to improve transparency in extraction of crude as well as in the receipts and payments among operators in the industry.
“The Chairman of the National Stakeholders’ Working Group of NEITI, professor Assisi Asobie, who stated this in an interview with our correspondent, noted that poor accounting and measurement of oil and gas production was a major challenge to the Initiative.
“He said, “We have been having problems with knowing exactly how much is produced, so we have commissioned a consultant to help us know the international best practices with regard to production accounting.
“It is so important because if you do not determine how much is lost, those companies that are producing benefit, and Nigeria is cheated. It is in the interest of producers that the status quo is maintained and that the nation never knows how much is lost and who is stealing the product.
“You know wherever there is anarchy, some people take advantage of the situation, and the way Nigeria’s oil and gas industry is structured today has given so much room for stealing and corruption to go on�.
“Asobie was speaking against the backdrop of the latest reconciliatory report released by NEITI, which covered 2006 to 2008 and publicized on the website of the extractive industries watchdog that disclosed several discrepancies in the operations of the conglomerate, especially with regard to its crude liftings and payments made into the Federation Account by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).
“According to the report, there is a “conflict of interest� in the buying and selling of crude by the corporation on behalf of Federal Government, and the concomitant financial corruption in the process, and called for a review of the system.
“It stated, “NNPC should not both buy Federation Crude oil and sell the same crude on behalf of the Federation. NNPC obtains a financial benefit by delaying sales documentation until it can choose an advantageous pricing option and make additional profit with the benefit of hindsight.
“This is contrary to the spirit of decision taken in 2002 that NNPC should pay the market price for crude. Restructuring of NNPC should ensure arm’s length dealing between the federation & NNPC in relation to the sale of crude.�
“It added that the corporation should pay for domestic crude in accordance with correct credit period.
“Export crude is marketed on behalf of Federation by the NNPC Crude Oil Marketing Division (COMD) while domestic crude is sold by the federation to NNPC.
“According to the report, the accounting system used by NNPC for equity crude is still largely not automated “with consequent reconciliation and fund sweeping interface difficulties.� It added that “As recommended in previous years, COMD should maintain a timely sales ledger account for the sale of federation crude. This is, especially important as regards domestic crude where NNPC fails to make timely payment & the federation lacks the record to understand how (what) is payable by NNPC at any time.
“The report further stressed that “the COMD lacks a system to manage & follow up on debts for crude sold, particularly to NNPC itself. The transaction system manages the single most significant source of income to the federation. The system should be urgently upgraded to best practices.�
“According to Asobie, there is need, therefore to use the latest electronic technology that can detect where these pipelines are sabotaged and the capture the images, so that the perpetrators can be apprehended and made to face the wrath of the law.
“He said, “oftentimes, the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), has complained to us that they cannot do it (effective monitoring and measurement) that is why we got someone from abroad to help us identify these technologies that use sonic systems and then use cameras to capture those behind the theft.
“We know that there are bigger personalities behind all these pipeline sabotage than the so called militants, so it is important that we begin to do things differently to ensure that a few people do not benefit from the wealth that belongs to everyone.�
“He added, “What we do in NEITI is to find out how much oil and gas are being produced in Nigeria, and, therefore, how much royalty & taxes also accrue to the country.
“Part of our responsibility is also to find out the deficiencies in the regulatory agencies like DPR, and help to remedy those deficiencies; we want to know what challenges they face in determining how much oil is produced and exported from the country.�
“The NEITI report also raised some issues worth the production sharing contract, which is managed by NNPC. It is noted that there were unresolved accounting issues in the area of PSC tax & royalty oil.
“There is a long running dispute between NNPC & PSC operators as to the interpretation of the calculation of cost oil under PSC; this has the effect that the parties cannot agree on the amounts being lifted by NNPC.
“Amounts reported for this reconciliation revealed different interpretations of the same lifting transactions; the issue should be resolved speedily.
“In 2007, a new system of bank a/cs was introduced to reflect the provisions. That system did not work well in the period under review. The method for accounting for tax and royalty PSC oil should be systematized�, it noted.
“It also noted that volumes reported by NNPC for crude oil liftings differed from those reported by companies operating the terminals.
“Companies report higher liftings than govt has accounted for. The differences between NNPC liftings, according to the records of NNPC and according to the information reported by companies, have not been explained,� the report noted.
“On signature bonuses, the report noted that “the Department of Petroleum Resources, DPR, provided incorrect information to the Reconciler, resulting in the issue of templates to companies being significantly delayed because the entities liable to pay signature bonuses and contract details for these entities were not known.
“As a result, not all these additional companies have returned their templates on signature bonus paid�.3
With the above lengthy quotes we end the introductory part.
Hence, our colleagues in NNPC as well as in International Oil Companies (IOCs) and even NEITI are in dilemma. However you and I can, if we are determined to make Nigeria’s oil and gas to go to the world top quartile.
Regards,
Nnadi Uc,
17897.
_

Monday, September 19, 2011

Goldman to close Global Alpha fund after losses

Fri, Sep 16 08:17 AM EDT

By Lauren Tara LaCapra and Svea Herbst-Bayliss

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc is shuttering a well-known hedge fund that relies on computer-driven trading strategies after the portfolio rang up a hefty loss this year.

Goldman told investors in the roughly $1.6 billion Global Alpha fund the news on Thursday, one day after it announced a management shake-up at the fund that had been the crown jewel of its quantitative trading business. The fund will be closed in the next few weeks.

Global Alpha had tumbled 13 percent by early September, delivering a far worse performance than other hedge funds that rely on computer programs to quickly take advantage of opportunities in the market, people familiar with the number said. These types of funds are supposed to move quickly in and out of stocks, bonds, currencies and other assets and exit positions before losses accrue.

This is the second time in four years the Global Alpha fund -- once one of Goldman's biggest with $12 billion in assets -- has suffered big losses and its performance raises questions about the ability of Goldman Sachs to manage quantitative strategies for its wealthy clients.

In fact, people familiar with Goldman Sachs have said the company's decision to liquidate Global Alpha signals its decision to exit quantitative hedge fund strategies altogether. The firm still manages billions in quantitative mutual funds.

Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

Even though Goldman's Global Alpha fund is in the red, most other quantitative hedge funds are up or are flat for the year. The average quant fund is down less than 1 percent over that period, according to performance tracking service Hedge Fund Research Inc.

Mark Carhart, the man who managed the Global Alpha fund with Raymond Iwanowski for more than a decade until 2009, has gained 7 percent net of fees this year at his new hedge fund Kepos Capital, a person familiar with his numbers said.

The new turmoil at Global Alpha comes almost four years to the day after the fund lost 22.5 percent in August 2007, during the early days of the financial crisis. Those losses prompted investors to pull money out.

Even though the fund's performance steadied with a 4 percent gain in 2008 and raced ahead with a 30 percent increase in 2009, assets never recovered. By the time Carhart and Iwanowski left in 2009, the fund had shrunk to $4 billion from its $12 billion peak. Soon after the pair retired, assets shriveled further to about $2 billion. The fund neither gained nor lost money last year, delivering a zero return.

The quantitative group has been beset by departures for some time. More than two dozen left this year alone, people familiar with the numbers said.

On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs Asset Management sent a letter to Global Alpha investors notifying them that Katinka Domotorffy, the head of the group's quantitative investment strategies, would retire at year's end. The letter, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters, did not discuss the poor performance of the Global Alpha fund.

DEJA VU AGAIN

What may have hit the Goldman fund especially hard were the unexpected stock market sell offs in early August and recent currency market fluctuations in the wake of the Swiss National Bank's decision to halt the rise of the Swiss franc, people familiar with the fund's models said.

Andrew Schneider, president and CEO of Global Hedge Fund Advisors, said the first half of September has been brutal for some large hedge funds, due to unpredictable moves in market direction.

"The volatility has been so high; if you're wrong, especially if you're using margin or leverage, your returns are going to be extremely poor," said Schneider.

Other quantitative hedge funds, however, fared better. James Simons' Renaissance Technologies' Renaissance Institutional Equities fund has gained more than 25 percent this year, said a person familiar with the fund run by the math professor turned hedge fund manager. Another quant fund, QuantZ Capital Management, for instance, is up 12.8 percent through September 6, according to a letter sent to investors.

(Reporting by Svea Herbst-Bayliss, Lauren Tara LaCapra and Katya Wachtel in New York; editing by Matthew Goldstein, Matthew Lewis and Andre Grenon)

Friday, September 16, 2011

State of the Nation

The signals about the state of our nation are pervasive and palpable. In my church “The prayer for Nigeria in Distress” has returned. The newspaper before me as I reflect, has a piece, wondering if Dr. Goodluck Jonathan will be the last President of Nigeria, and small pub talk seems to have reached a consensus that the first 100 days of the current administration has been, to put it charitably, anything but what people had hoped for.

Still this reflection has been particularly challenging for me. It has been so for a variety of reasons. First I took the view that if our democracy is to mature, we have to cultivate what is “practiced restraint” to allow a new government a honeymoon to implement their promise so that share partisan bickering from day one, when what they are trying to do is not even clearly articulated in a legislative agenda, and the unfolding of certain policy initiatives, do not frustrate governance.

Secondly, the states of things are so fragile that a responsible statesman must be on guard, lest a statement not too well considered, produce an outcome more damaging to our collective desire for peace and progress.

Thirdly, this is a time of rapid change in the global arena making a certain delicacy in how we position, see ourselves, and project into that arena, critical for the legacy we bequeath to our children. It was important to make haste slowly at times like this in terms of rush to judgement in public comments.

All things considered, however, the grave nature of the current condition is such that failure to alert the simple, the ordinary, and the mighty and powerful about our country’s sad race towards anarchy may be a betrayal of the mission of my generation, in the Franz Fanon sense. Perhaps patriotic counsel can cause a reflection and review that may yet save us all unwarranted agony.

In this review, which is by no means exhaustive, we consider security of the governors and the sovereign wealth fund, we also reflect on failing institutions from the Judiciary to the Central Bank, the healthcare system, infrastructure in a rapidly urbanizing situation, the deepening electric power crisis and labour tensions.

Then we shall speak on the issue of constitutional reform, fiscal federalism and the competitiveness of the Nigerian economy as well as challenges with agriculture, corruption and the cost of governing.

On Security
The first demand of modern man on the Leviathan is security. Escape from the philosophical “state of nature” is pointless if the state cannot provide security. Yet to read our newspapers is to read a “manifesto” on insecurity. Kidnappings are now daily routine that attract little coverage unless high profile targets like Mikel Obi’s father and Dr. Kusamotu’s daughter are involved. Armed robbery reigns in many parts and big target hits like banks are not rare anymore.

Then there is terror. I do not have the statistics of exodus from Maiduguri but most admit that it is headed to “ghost town” status. The suicide bombing of the UN Building in Abuja, finally brought to the World, after the Police Force Headquarters bombings the phenomenon of Nigeria’s journey to Pakistan, which has already paralyzed several states in the North East of Nigeria.

To this alarming situation can be added saber rattling in the traditional Niger Delta battleground, and Plateau State’s travel on the road to Somalia.

Sadly, this has been tragedy foretold. The book by the American writer Robert Kaplan, The Coming Anarchy, in which West Africa’s descent into wantom criminality, ethnic and religious conflict and the revenge of the poor, pointed to Jos going this wayv15 years ago. But we did nothing, I was recently in Jos to speak at the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies in Kuru.

To encourage responsible Youth, I spent hours in Radio interviews, and in meetings to motivate Youth to consider the dignity of the human person cardinal, and human life sacrosanct. I was sad that a day after my visit one of those youth listening to me died a torturous death in these ethnic and religious orgies that have stripped beauty from once serene Jos.

In the face of all this the reaction of government has been pathetic. Every new event shows that intelligence, instead of improving, is caving in. The desperate need to rethink the structure of the police force is apparently ignored even as experience around the world suggest the imperative of decentralization and review of command structure.

I have always favoured community policing and the need for state and regional police force but the fact that no serious discussion seems to be going on about this makes one wonder what the purpose of the Federal Executive Council is. Evidence suggests that the FEC has become a tender board rather than the national operating committee engaging on our key challenges.

Failing Institutions
Central to my model for reviewing state performance for years are six critical variables. Among them, the state of Institutions, the Value System (Culture) and Leadership. The state of institutions is a veritable barometer for the health of a nation. Weak institutions have been the bane of progress in Nigeria for a long time. In the last 100 days they just got much worse.

Particularly traumatized and traumatizing for Nigeria are the immobilizing punches to the midsection of the last frontier institution, the Judiciary.

It is considered the hope of the Common Man, and the final bastion for expectation that all will get a fair, if not perfect chance to actualize in Civil Community.

The issues around the controversy over allegations by the lead judge of the Court of Appeals, Justice Salami, and the handling of the matter by the government left a sour taste about the possibilities of Justice in Nigeria. This is the dominant reason why many investors skip over Nigeria in spite of alluring market possibilities. As author of the 1998 book: Managing Uncertainty. I have evidence based reasons to be frightened about a future in which the judiciary declines so badly in the estimation of fair minded people.

Institutions are so central to progress that in dealing with them state actors must be focused on the long term good of society rather than small time transaction partisanship. Nigeria is hemmoraghly badly from the many errors of judgment of Justice Kastina-Alu and the Presidency.

I recall that in my response when the story first broke I had suggested that both Kastina-Alu and Salami resign graciously, not because they were right or wrong but because the responsibility of high office which they had attained, made saving the institution more important than establishing who was right or wrong.

Just as troubling is the case of the Central Bank stumbling from one set of questionable decisions to another. I have to confess that each time I think of the actions of the CBN in the last two and half years the metaphors that strike me are Adolph Hitler in Germany and Juan Peron in Argentina. Both men enjoyed public acclaim in populist jingoism of their style but the effort in the end was the near destruction of their countries.

Argentina went from being more or less at par with the United States in 1939, as Allan Beattie lucidly shows in his surprising Economic history of the World, False Economy, to West Africa level GDP by the 1990s, thanks to Peron’s nationalism. Hitler brought utter devastation to the Third Reich.

The description by someone of the CBN functioning like an Animal farm of mental asylum run by raving lunatics, is an extreme parody of George Orwell. What I am more saddened by is that we will wake up 10 years from now and realize this CBN has done more damages to the Nigerian economy than all the corrupt bank executives removed and left behind through some of the most arbitrary choices I have ever encountered as a student of the public policy process around the world, put together.

Even more ridiculous than the disruption of the financial system is the Islamic Banking matter that could result in the breakup of Nigeria. There is nothing peculiar about non-interest banking of even one of an Islamic flavour. I had collaborated with Alhaji Umaru Mutallab and others in trying to explain it, several years ago, including featuring the subjects on Patito’s Gang. But this CBN, staying in character, to score cheap points has made it polarising.

What is troubling is not that CBN is the way it is, the matter is that the administration has watched unconcerned as it is dealing death blows to the economy. A sick and enfeebled Umaru Yar’Adua could stop the decimalisation programme of CBN so why is autonomy an excuse to hand cheques to people working at dismantling the economy.

The National Assembly is quick to claim the powers of appropriation, so how much have they done to check tax payer’s monies being recklessly disbursed in the name of banking reform. One illegality after the other has gone on and the Attorney – General office has pursed shadows elsewhere.

If government is serious it should invite independent international analysts to review every decision of CBN from the stress test to nationalization to establish if the protest travesty has not been inflicted on investors and citizens. What seems sure is a decline of the sector and the economy for whose sake SAP sought financial deepening and the banking sector liberalization that was to be its processor.

Suddenly we are back to those times when people bribed to be appointed bank executives by a public sector in which we have a “tragedy of the commons” writ large.

In one year before better connected people replace the successful bribers from one round of executive changes, the appointed would have done maximum damage. I still clearly remember a few people who went through that between 1990 and 1994. The CBN error unchecked will surely add to the unemployment time bomb.

The Unemployment Time Bomb
We have a young population. Every year they reach working age in their millions but an economy in which government action has stifled private initiative and growth appropriate to our “demographic dividend” has been unable to provide the required jobs.

In 100 days we have seen no bold initiative articulated or the implementation of our effort at putting idle hands to work and stimulate the private sector to hire many more. This is a time bomb receiving platitudes rather than action.

Rapid job creation will have to come from creative initiatives in agriculture, manufacturing recitation, and infrastructure development.

The Sovereign Wealth Fund and Governors’ Amnesia
In recent weeks governors have carried on an assault on a law so recently passed to enable us save a little for the benefit of the next generation. The excuse they offer for recovering from amnesia suffered when the issue became law is the grand norm, the law.

This idea is not new. It was raised when the excess crude account was first suggested and later implemented. I recall saying to Lagos State Finance Commissioner, Wale Edun, who worried that I supported the “illegality” of states funds being held back that I think we should quickly change that grand law rather than fail to save.

My take is that the governors perceive a weekend presidency and are deepening the politics of power erosion to take more resources to consume now. This is inspite of a “lottery effect” that has been evident with the states being less effective in serving the needs of the people with more money that comes as wind fall, relative to the wealth creating regional governments of the times of true federalism in the 1960s.

In some ways this anti-savings disposition of governors already seen as reckless spenders by the people seems so impolitic. It leaves the impression of a perverse generation of politicians that has raided the barn stored up by their fathers, are various consuming what today has brought by accidents that include little of their effort and a reaching-in to devour the patrimony of their grand children.

I have for year’s advocated constitutional reform that would allow a fiscal regime in which percentage of revenues going to the distributable pool, the federation account, the next tranche of revenues from mineral income going to stabilization fund and the balance to a future fund. The last two revenue stores would be managed like mutual funds where the bolding of each state is as per their constitutionally prescribed share.

Citizenship behaviour needs to be exercised in the direction of putting pressure on the governors to back off the track they are travelling.

Forging Consensus
Leading Nigeria out of its current state of self double, when the prospects of rapid economic growth and prosperity have never been more self evident require visionary effort to forge elite consensus. Phenomenal opportunity for that in the last 12 years has been squandered by leaders too limited to see the value of playing statesman and bringing all the valuable human assets of our country under one roof especially in a time of crisis as we have today.

With so many embittered that their country is in the firm grip of those who do not lead it well in the direction other nations are going and experiencing progress. It is no surprise that Nigeria’s core is being rocked, both violently and in terms of a sense of despair from its intellectual elite who have moral authority, if not power.

If those who are perceived to know and are committed, stay outside perceived to know and are committed, stay outside “pressing” in progress will be hard. Mahathir Mohammed discovered this in Malaysia and worked to get all into the house, pissing out.

•Professor Utomi is a Political Economist and Entrepreneur.