Monday, September 19, 2011

Goldman to close Global Alpha fund after losses

Fri, Sep 16 08:17 AM EDT

By Lauren Tara LaCapra and Svea Herbst-Bayliss

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc is shuttering a well-known hedge fund that relies on computer-driven trading strategies after the portfolio rang up a hefty loss this year.

Goldman told investors in the roughly $1.6 billion Global Alpha fund the news on Thursday, one day after it announced a management shake-up at the fund that had been the crown jewel of its quantitative trading business. The fund will be closed in the next few weeks.

Global Alpha had tumbled 13 percent by early September, delivering a far worse performance than other hedge funds that rely on computer programs to quickly take advantage of opportunities in the market, people familiar with the number said. These types of funds are supposed to move quickly in and out of stocks, bonds, currencies and other assets and exit positions before losses accrue.

This is the second time in four years the Global Alpha fund -- once one of Goldman's biggest with $12 billion in assets -- has suffered big losses and its performance raises questions about the ability of Goldman Sachs to manage quantitative strategies for its wealthy clients.

In fact, people familiar with Goldman Sachs have said the company's decision to liquidate Global Alpha signals its decision to exit quantitative hedge fund strategies altogether. The firm still manages billions in quantitative mutual funds.

Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

Even though Goldman's Global Alpha fund is in the red, most other quantitative hedge funds are up or are flat for the year. The average quant fund is down less than 1 percent over that period, according to performance tracking service Hedge Fund Research Inc.

Mark Carhart, the man who managed the Global Alpha fund with Raymond Iwanowski for more than a decade until 2009, has gained 7 percent net of fees this year at his new hedge fund Kepos Capital, a person familiar with his numbers said.

The new turmoil at Global Alpha comes almost four years to the day after the fund lost 22.5 percent in August 2007, during the early days of the financial crisis. Those losses prompted investors to pull money out.

Even though the fund's performance steadied with a 4 percent gain in 2008 and raced ahead with a 30 percent increase in 2009, assets never recovered. By the time Carhart and Iwanowski left in 2009, the fund had shrunk to $4 billion from its $12 billion peak. Soon after the pair retired, assets shriveled further to about $2 billion. The fund neither gained nor lost money last year, delivering a zero return.

The quantitative group has been beset by departures for some time. More than two dozen left this year alone, people familiar with the numbers said.

On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs Asset Management sent a letter to Global Alpha investors notifying them that Katinka Domotorffy, the head of the group's quantitative investment strategies, would retire at year's end. The letter, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters, did not discuss the poor performance of the Global Alpha fund.

DEJA VU AGAIN

What may have hit the Goldman fund especially hard were the unexpected stock market sell offs in early August and recent currency market fluctuations in the wake of the Swiss National Bank's decision to halt the rise of the Swiss franc, people familiar with the fund's models said.

Andrew Schneider, president and CEO of Global Hedge Fund Advisors, said the first half of September has been brutal for some large hedge funds, due to unpredictable moves in market direction.

"The volatility has been so high; if you're wrong, especially if you're using margin or leverage, your returns are going to be extremely poor," said Schneider.

Other quantitative hedge funds, however, fared better. James Simons' Renaissance Technologies' Renaissance Institutional Equities fund has gained more than 25 percent this year, said a person familiar with the fund run by the math professor turned hedge fund manager. Another quant fund, QuantZ Capital Management, for instance, is up 12.8 percent through September 6, according to a letter sent to investors.

(Reporting by Svea Herbst-Bayliss, Lauren Tara LaCapra and Katya Wachtel in New York; editing by Matthew Goldstein, Matthew Lewis and Andre Grenon)

Friday, September 16, 2011

State of the Nation

The signals about the state of our nation are pervasive and palpable. In my church “The prayer for Nigeria in Distress” has returned. The newspaper before me as I reflect, has a piece, wondering if Dr. Goodluck Jonathan will be the last President of Nigeria, and small pub talk seems to have reached a consensus that the first 100 days of the current administration has been, to put it charitably, anything but what people had hoped for.

Still this reflection has been particularly challenging for me. It has been so for a variety of reasons. First I took the view that if our democracy is to mature, we have to cultivate what is “practiced restraint” to allow a new government a honeymoon to implement their promise so that share partisan bickering from day one, when what they are trying to do is not even clearly articulated in a legislative agenda, and the unfolding of certain policy initiatives, do not frustrate governance.

Secondly, the states of things are so fragile that a responsible statesman must be on guard, lest a statement not too well considered, produce an outcome more damaging to our collective desire for peace and progress.

Thirdly, this is a time of rapid change in the global arena making a certain delicacy in how we position, see ourselves, and project into that arena, critical for the legacy we bequeath to our children. It was important to make haste slowly at times like this in terms of rush to judgement in public comments.

All things considered, however, the grave nature of the current condition is such that failure to alert the simple, the ordinary, and the mighty and powerful about our country’s sad race towards anarchy may be a betrayal of the mission of my generation, in the Franz Fanon sense. Perhaps patriotic counsel can cause a reflection and review that may yet save us all unwarranted agony.

In this review, which is by no means exhaustive, we consider security of the governors and the sovereign wealth fund, we also reflect on failing institutions from the Judiciary to the Central Bank, the healthcare system, infrastructure in a rapidly urbanizing situation, the deepening electric power crisis and labour tensions.

Then we shall speak on the issue of constitutional reform, fiscal federalism and the competitiveness of the Nigerian economy as well as challenges with agriculture, corruption and the cost of governing.

On Security
The first demand of modern man on the Leviathan is security. Escape from the philosophical “state of nature” is pointless if the state cannot provide security. Yet to read our newspapers is to read a “manifesto” on insecurity. Kidnappings are now daily routine that attract little coverage unless high profile targets like Mikel Obi’s father and Dr. Kusamotu’s daughter are involved. Armed robbery reigns in many parts and big target hits like banks are not rare anymore.

Then there is terror. I do not have the statistics of exodus from Maiduguri but most admit that it is headed to “ghost town” status. The suicide bombing of the UN Building in Abuja, finally brought to the World, after the Police Force Headquarters bombings the phenomenon of Nigeria’s journey to Pakistan, which has already paralyzed several states in the North East of Nigeria.

To this alarming situation can be added saber rattling in the traditional Niger Delta battleground, and Plateau State’s travel on the road to Somalia.

Sadly, this has been tragedy foretold. The book by the American writer Robert Kaplan, The Coming Anarchy, in which West Africa’s descent into wantom criminality, ethnic and religious conflict and the revenge of the poor, pointed to Jos going this wayv15 years ago. But we did nothing, I was recently in Jos to speak at the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies in Kuru.

To encourage responsible Youth, I spent hours in Radio interviews, and in meetings to motivate Youth to consider the dignity of the human person cardinal, and human life sacrosanct. I was sad that a day after my visit one of those youth listening to me died a torturous death in these ethnic and religious orgies that have stripped beauty from once serene Jos.

In the face of all this the reaction of government has been pathetic. Every new event shows that intelligence, instead of improving, is caving in. The desperate need to rethink the structure of the police force is apparently ignored even as experience around the world suggest the imperative of decentralization and review of command structure.

I have always favoured community policing and the need for state and regional police force but the fact that no serious discussion seems to be going on about this makes one wonder what the purpose of the Federal Executive Council is. Evidence suggests that the FEC has become a tender board rather than the national operating committee engaging on our key challenges.

Failing Institutions
Central to my model for reviewing state performance for years are six critical variables. Among them, the state of Institutions, the Value System (Culture) and Leadership. The state of institutions is a veritable barometer for the health of a nation. Weak institutions have been the bane of progress in Nigeria for a long time. In the last 100 days they just got much worse.

Particularly traumatized and traumatizing for Nigeria are the immobilizing punches to the midsection of the last frontier institution, the Judiciary.

It is considered the hope of the Common Man, and the final bastion for expectation that all will get a fair, if not perfect chance to actualize in Civil Community.

The issues around the controversy over allegations by the lead judge of the Court of Appeals, Justice Salami, and the handling of the matter by the government left a sour taste about the possibilities of Justice in Nigeria. This is the dominant reason why many investors skip over Nigeria in spite of alluring market possibilities. As author of the 1998 book: Managing Uncertainty. I have evidence based reasons to be frightened about a future in which the judiciary declines so badly in the estimation of fair minded people.

Institutions are so central to progress that in dealing with them state actors must be focused on the long term good of society rather than small time transaction partisanship. Nigeria is hemmoraghly badly from the many errors of judgment of Justice Kastina-Alu and the Presidency.

I recall that in my response when the story first broke I had suggested that both Kastina-Alu and Salami resign graciously, not because they were right or wrong but because the responsibility of high office which they had attained, made saving the institution more important than establishing who was right or wrong.

Just as troubling is the case of the Central Bank stumbling from one set of questionable decisions to another. I have to confess that each time I think of the actions of the CBN in the last two and half years the metaphors that strike me are Adolph Hitler in Germany and Juan Peron in Argentina. Both men enjoyed public acclaim in populist jingoism of their style but the effort in the end was the near destruction of their countries.

Argentina went from being more or less at par with the United States in 1939, as Allan Beattie lucidly shows in his surprising Economic history of the World, False Economy, to West Africa level GDP by the 1990s, thanks to Peron’s nationalism. Hitler brought utter devastation to the Third Reich.

The description by someone of the CBN functioning like an Animal farm of mental asylum run by raving lunatics, is an extreme parody of George Orwell. What I am more saddened by is that we will wake up 10 years from now and realize this CBN has done more damages to the Nigerian economy than all the corrupt bank executives removed and left behind through some of the most arbitrary choices I have ever encountered as a student of the public policy process around the world, put together.

Even more ridiculous than the disruption of the financial system is the Islamic Banking matter that could result in the breakup of Nigeria. There is nothing peculiar about non-interest banking of even one of an Islamic flavour. I had collaborated with Alhaji Umaru Mutallab and others in trying to explain it, several years ago, including featuring the subjects on Patito’s Gang. But this CBN, staying in character, to score cheap points has made it polarising.

What is troubling is not that CBN is the way it is, the matter is that the administration has watched unconcerned as it is dealing death blows to the economy. A sick and enfeebled Umaru Yar’Adua could stop the decimalisation programme of CBN so why is autonomy an excuse to hand cheques to people working at dismantling the economy.

The National Assembly is quick to claim the powers of appropriation, so how much have they done to check tax payer’s monies being recklessly disbursed in the name of banking reform. One illegality after the other has gone on and the Attorney – General office has pursed shadows elsewhere.

If government is serious it should invite independent international analysts to review every decision of CBN from the stress test to nationalization to establish if the protest travesty has not been inflicted on investors and citizens. What seems sure is a decline of the sector and the economy for whose sake SAP sought financial deepening and the banking sector liberalization that was to be its processor.

Suddenly we are back to those times when people bribed to be appointed bank executives by a public sector in which we have a “tragedy of the commons” writ large.

In one year before better connected people replace the successful bribers from one round of executive changes, the appointed would have done maximum damage. I still clearly remember a few people who went through that between 1990 and 1994. The CBN error unchecked will surely add to the unemployment time bomb.

The Unemployment Time Bomb
We have a young population. Every year they reach working age in their millions but an economy in which government action has stifled private initiative and growth appropriate to our “demographic dividend” has been unable to provide the required jobs.

In 100 days we have seen no bold initiative articulated or the implementation of our effort at putting idle hands to work and stimulate the private sector to hire many more. This is a time bomb receiving platitudes rather than action.

Rapid job creation will have to come from creative initiatives in agriculture, manufacturing recitation, and infrastructure development.

The Sovereign Wealth Fund and Governors’ Amnesia
In recent weeks governors have carried on an assault on a law so recently passed to enable us save a little for the benefit of the next generation. The excuse they offer for recovering from amnesia suffered when the issue became law is the grand norm, the law.

This idea is not new. It was raised when the excess crude account was first suggested and later implemented. I recall saying to Lagos State Finance Commissioner, Wale Edun, who worried that I supported the “illegality” of states funds being held back that I think we should quickly change that grand law rather than fail to save.

My take is that the governors perceive a weekend presidency and are deepening the politics of power erosion to take more resources to consume now. This is inspite of a “lottery effect” that has been evident with the states being less effective in serving the needs of the people with more money that comes as wind fall, relative to the wealth creating regional governments of the times of true federalism in the 1960s.

In some ways this anti-savings disposition of governors already seen as reckless spenders by the people seems so impolitic. It leaves the impression of a perverse generation of politicians that has raided the barn stored up by their fathers, are various consuming what today has brought by accidents that include little of their effort and a reaching-in to devour the patrimony of their grand children.

I have for year’s advocated constitutional reform that would allow a fiscal regime in which percentage of revenues going to the distributable pool, the federation account, the next tranche of revenues from mineral income going to stabilization fund and the balance to a future fund. The last two revenue stores would be managed like mutual funds where the bolding of each state is as per their constitutionally prescribed share.

Citizenship behaviour needs to be exercised in the direction of putting pressure on the governors to back off the track they are travelling.

Forging Consensus
Leading Nigeria out of its current state of self double, when the prospects of rapid economic growth and prosperity have never been more self evident require visionary effort to forge elite consensus. Phenomenal opportunity for that in the last 12 years has been squandered by leaders too limited to see the value of playing statesman and bringing all the valuable human assets of our country under one roof especially in a time of crisis as we have today.

With so many embittered that their country is in the firm grip of those who do not lead it well in the direction other nations are going and experiencing progress. It is no surprise that Nigeria’s core is being rocked, both violently and in terms of a sense of despair from its intellectual elite who have moral authority, if not power.

If those who are perceived to know and are committed, stay outside perceived to know and are committed, stay outside “pressing” in progress will be hard. Mahathir Mohammed discovered this in Malaysia and worked to get all into the house, pissing out.

•Professor Utomi is a Political Economist and Entrepreneur.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Fashola hands over 336 rent-to-own housing units

On September 15, 2011 · In News

By OLASUNKANMI AKONI & MONSUR OLOWOOPEJO

LAGOS-Governor Babatunde Fashola of Lagos State, has handed over to the public, the pilot home ownership scheme at Epe. He also urged the Federal Government to embark on the repeal of Primary Mortgage Institutions, PMI, Act and replace same with a new law that will guarantee mass housing initiative in the country.

This came as Commissioner for Commerce and Industry, Mrs. Olusola Oworu, said that 93.7 per cent of the businesses in the state were in the informal sector.

Fashola, speaking at the commissioning of 336 units of Sir Michael Otedola Housing Estate in Odoguranshin, Epe, said his administration set up the mortgage board to give hope to Nigerians to own homes of their own and ensure that low income earners have access to own homes.

He said the Federal Government should, as a matter of urgency, look into the Primary Housing Mortgage Institution, PMI Act, with a view to repealing it and replace same with a law that would guarantee the needed capital to fund mass housing initiatives in the country.

He said: ”With competing demands for other social services, we are convinced that the future for mass housing delivery should be private sector-driven with government strengthening the operational environment and legal framework for such participation.

“The result is that the public gets quality and affordable houses while the private sector gets new business opportunities.”

He noted that the problem of housing was not that of building alone but of sustainability, which manifests itself in various forms, such as the congestion of ports, which compounds the cost of imported components of building materials, the rate of foreign exchange, which adds to cost of building, the absence of long-term mortgages and funding, exacerbated by high interest rates which force citizens to desperate situations in order to raise money to pay for houses in one single payment.

Maputo 2011 - Medals Table as at 12/9/11

According to the table published on the website of the Games Organising Committee (COJA), so far 466 medals have been awarded at the 10th All-Africa Games in Maputo.


Of these, 131 (28 per cent) have been won by South Africa, due largely to South Africa prowess in the swimming pool, where it won 74 medals.

Algeria is still in second position, with 51 medals, but Nigeria has now moved into third position, with 47 medals. This is partly due to Nigerian dominance of the badminton tournament, in which Nigerian players won 12 medals.

But the medals table published by COJA is woefully out of date. It does not include any of the medals won on Tuesday, or even on Monday evening. It is thus 48 hours behind the reality of the games.

For example, it does not include the Nigerian triumph in the women’s 100 metres on Monday night, in which Nigerian sprinters took all three medals. And it does not include the latest bronze medals won by Mozambique in chess and athletics.

So, with the proviso that it only covers events up to Monday afternoon, here is the latest COJA medals table:

South Africa: 131 (57 gold, 40 silver, 34 bronze)

Algeria: 51 (11 gold, 19 silver, 21 bronze)

Nigeria: 47 (11 gold, 16 silver, 20 bronze)

Tunisia 45: (17 gold, 19 silver, 9 bronze)

Egypt 30: (14 gold, 7 silver, 9 bronze)

Kenya: 28 (7 gold, 7 silver, 14 bronze)

Senegal: 20 (6 gold, 3 silver, 11 bronze)

Cameroon: 14 (4 gold, 1 silver, 9 bronze)

Mauritius: 13 (4 gold, 2 silver, 7 bronze)

Angola: 12 (2 gold, 4 silver, 6 bronze)

Seychelles: 12 (1 gold, 4 silver, 7 bronze)

Zimbabwe: 11 (4 gold, 6 silver, 1 bronze)

Ethiopia: 9 (2 gold, 3 silver, 4 bronze)

Botswana: 8 (1 gold, 2 silver and 5 bronze)

Ghana: 7 (1 gold, 6 bronze)

Mozambique: 7 (2 silver, 5 bronze)

Congo: 6 (1 silver, 5 bronze)

Uganda: 4 (1 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze)

DR Congo: 3 bronze

Ivory Coast: 2 silver

Madagascar: 1 silver

Mali: 1 silver

Namibia: 1 silver

Rwanda: 1 silver

Lesotho: 1 bronze

Sao Tome and Principe: 1 bronze.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Nigerian Prophet Predicts Impending World War Three

Some people see him as the Nostradamus of our time because of his previous powerful predictions that have come into reality. Apostle Perez Oluyemi In his recent prediction warned nations of the earth of the mysterious things that would envelope the world in years to come. Once again, he is now calling on all nations of the earth to rise up to fight terrorism.
“The spate at which terrorism is going might lead to another world war if not properly handled.
The man of God that made reference to restiveness in virtually all nations of the world warned that world might annihilate itself if terrorism is not adequately addressed”.
Apostle Perez Oluyemi who spoke on the skyrocketing level at which some nations of the world are developing weapons of mass destruction to the detriment of other nations criticized this trend which he said United Nation (UN) may not be able to handle in years to come.
“It is pathetically shocking and horridly unfortunate that at this age and time that some counties or countries assume in error that they are free terror or rather ‘terrorism and from what the world is about it. Goof! I say it is time now we all realized that terrorism is an horrendously odd war declared against the entire human race or races, leaving no race or colour out”
In his world: “Terrorism is deadlier and much more devastatingly lethal than the long spoken about the world most dreaded monster, ‘AIDS’ or even any other. It is exterminating force in geometrical order rather than arithmetical”.
He stated that terrorism is a heinous crime against the entire creation of God, human race, and that the whole world must team up to fight it before it leads to another war world war three.
“If your Haman live in the book of Esther, which is a standing terror, systematically terrorism in ceaseless…. Surreptitiously moves and adamantly tenaciously in an ever increasing strife to rule your world and ours; is properly taken care of, then our established lifting prosperity and promotion together in eschaton is assured.
He further stated that if the world lose the war on terror the end results would be calamitous not just to one nation but the entire nations of the world.
“If we lose this war; we are going down the drain together. So it is truly the war of the whole world. It is the unnamed world war 3”, he stated.
“There are only 37 years for the end time grand agenda. By the grace of God I can open the details of this mystery to the whole at the right for it is only hidden in the world of God. Apostle Philip also unraveled a mystery to Eunuch of Ethiopia. What I am doing now is solely biblical-so that the world do not annihilate or exterminate until He that letteth lets”.

Wikileaks’ Report A Fiction, Says Okonjo-Iweala

Sunday, 11 September 2011 00:00 Editor News - National

THE report — “WikiLeaks: Okonjo-Iweala Ferried $50 Million Jobs To Brother” — which was published by Sahara Reporters has been described as baseless fiction that is “totally devoid of even a semblance of truth.”

A statement signed by the Senior Special Assistant to Coordinating Minister for the Economy/Minister of Finance, Mr. Paul Nwabuikwu, which was made available to The Guardian yesterday, the reference to Dr. Okonjo-Iweala in the story lacked substance and credibility.

“The story,”according to Nwabuikwu, “is based on two sentences in the alleged Wikileaks cable allegedly uttered by an unidentified person alleging that Dr Okonjo-Iweala “steered” contracts worth $50m to her brother for “consulting work in 2004.

“First, the minister has no brother called Jon-Jon, as the alleged “brother” is identified in the story.

Second, no brother of the Minister was awarded any such “consulting” contract as alleged.

“Third, as Minister of Finance in the Obasanjo government, Dr Okonjo-Iweala earned a name as a high-performing public servant of impeccable integrity.

“Fourth, this “revelation” obviously refers to a previous allegation about one of her brothers, which was thoroughly investigated and discredited because it was found to have originated from vested interests. It is shocking that something that was discredited so long ago is being rehashed.

“It is clear that this is another ploy by vested interests, who are desperate to stop her from contributing to the realisation of an improved Nigeria . They will fail again.

“It would, therefore, be extremely unwise to give credence to such a flippant statement by an unknown and unconfirmed source. The story is simply a“tale by moonlight” account by an unknown source about something that never happened.

“A similar report by Pointblanknews, a disreputable online website quoting a disreputable “former” presidential candidate, also made the totally laughable claim that Dr Okonjo-Iweala was “fired” by former President Olusegun Obasanjo because she benefitted from the historic debt deal with the Paris Club, which she contributed so much to achieving. The allegation makes it clear that the vested interests are not only desperate but very unintelligent as well.

“ It is a fact of history that when Dr Okonjo-Iweala resigned from the Obasanjo government, the administration eulogised her for her high competence and professionalism because she did justice to every single assignment she was given.

One of the many reasons Dr Okonjo-Iweala enjoys such a high standing internationally is the fact that she has been thoroughly investigated and cleared by the most respected security agencies in the world.

“With Okonjo-Iweala what you see is what you get. Anything else is fiction,” Nwabuikwu concluded.